Thursday, November 07, 2002

It's a Black Thing

From this AM's Times Pic:

The differences in black and white turnout underscore one of Landrieu's chief problems as she heads into the runoff: She has not been able to motivate African-American voters, the core constituency for a Democrat and a group that constitutes a third of the Louisiana electorate.

I've got two magic words with which Suzie T can break Mary's lock on the black vote and siphon off some that do vote on December 7:

School Vouchers

Wednesday, November 06, 2002


Free Iraq Vacation, though I think I already know who won. They won’t need a flight or a car either…
Mary better watch out...


1. LA is a red state. W will definitely be visiting to stump for the Republican candidate now that there is just one.

2. The Pachy vote was 51%(Terrell 27%, Cooksey 14%, and Perkins 10%). Nobody who voted R will cross over and most will definitely show up to vote in the runoff. No Smith like hard feelings here, Cooksey and Perkins will fully back Suzie. Mary only got 45% this time around and that was with a close DA's race going on in Nola (which bowler chapeued Eddie Jordan barely won) to boost Donk turnout.

3. The runoff is December 7, which has traditionally been a low turnout day.

I don't expect Mayor Nagin to do much for her either. It is not like the she or the Democratic party helped him get elected (they backed Jefferson's guy, Pennington). Nagin knows Republicans helped elect him and doing more than the obligatory for Mary will turn them off to him. The last thing he needs to do is get hooked up with a loser. IMHO Mary Landieu is done as Senator in LA. Still, the election is going to be fun. Maybe this success will get us the Republican Naitonal Convention in two years. I am all about being there to catch the campaign money as it trickles down.

Tuesday, November 05, 2002

BlogTheVote2002USA LA

I'm no pro and considerably less politically engaged, at least locally, than when I used to blog more frequently. Still, I think I can give you all a pretty good feel from the front lines of where I expect the battle for control of the Senate will conducted through December 7, when the runoff occurs. My gut says runoff for a number of reasons:

1. In spite of the high profile of this race, Mary's campaign has been tepid at best. It's sort of the political equivalent of taking a knee at the end of the first half. Mary's numbers were never convincingly in the majority. Since there is going to be a runoff, better to run a pro forma, positive campaign to hold her base and keep the powder dry for later.

2. No high profile Donks or Packs came through to campaign. I expect they have already conceded a runoff and plan on coming down for the circus leading up to the runoff.

3. Politics is entertainment here. A runoff with the fate of the Senate at stake looks to be the best free show this side of Mardi Gras. It is almost too bad Eddie Edwards is in jail. Maybe someone will interview him for some choice quotes.

4. It would be great for the economy down here. All that campaign money has to go somewhere. If Mary's people took the knee with that in mind, I salute them.

5. The Morial/Jefferson machine has been fractured by the former's exit from office and the latter's opposition to Morial's hugely popular successor, Ray Nagin. Also affecting the traditionally straight ticket black vote is the close race for DA between the Jefferson backed Eddie Jordan and comparative newcomer Dale Atkins, neither of whom enjoy Nagin's endorsement.

6. It's raining.

I voted about an hour ago, it was drizzling, but I actually had to wait behind a few people to vote, a first for me at the local precinct. I don't think this reflects high turnout so much as people spending more time in the booths due to a big slate of pretty much heretofore unheard of constitutional amendments. If one does not study them before hand, it takes some time to decipher exactly what one is voting for or against.
It is pouring down now. Of course the local talk radio wags are extolling people get out and vote in spite of the rain. Frankly, I don't think that important political questions ought be addressed by those who consider the preserving one's hairdo paramount to thoughtfully exercising one's franchise.

More Local Coverage

Politics LA
LA Dept of Elections add this last one for the local news feed and the fact that if you are going to come town for the circus, you'll find the best room rates through these guys.)
It's not as wet, but still gross out. FWIW, a lot of the pros are calling it a runoff for Senate. The Packs and Suzie Terrill, the late entering State Elections Commish cum candidate, have had a lot of traction with so-called negative ads comparing Mary Landrieu with Hillary! and taking her to task for her high falootin' Washington DC lifestyle and mansion. One of Mary's response ads, in which she rode around in a locally built spec ops boat, came awfully close to the dreaded "Dukakis in the tank" gaffe and seems to have been pulled. It still may show up should the GOP decide to go after her on defense. I know from personal and second hand experience that she and her staff are remakably clueless there.